THE BUREAU of Meteorology has released its winter long-range forecast showing rainfall is likely to be below average for most central, southern and eastern parts of Australia.

While rainfall is expected to be below average in these regions, there is still a high chance of some rain, with the typical winter rainfall across southern areas being 100 to 400 mm around the coast and 25 to 100 mm inland.

Temperatures this winter are likely to be above average across most of Australia. This follows a warmer-than-average autumn.

Despite the warmer-than-average forecast, cold snaps bringing low temperatures, frost, or snow are still possible during winter.

Long-range forecasts provide an overall seasonal trend but do not predict short-term weather systems.

The Bureau’s long-range forecast is updated fortnightly and considers a range of models and influences such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

While the ENSO is currently neutral, all models indicate El Niño is likely to develop this winter.

El Niño typically influences rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia from winter into early summer, roughly June to December, with this influence typically peaking during the spring months.

While the historical experience of El Niño events can create an expectation that these events will be the same each time they occur, no two El Niño events are the same.

Queensland Forecast  
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for Queensland’s central and southern areas.

Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 50 and 100 mm across much of Queensland’s south and east, increasing to 200 mm along much of the east coast. Western and central Queensland typically have between 10 and 50 mm, and the north-west has less than 10 mm.

While rainfall is expected to be below average for most of the state this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.

It is currently northern Australia’s dry season, where most of the tropical north typically has very low rainfall. While the forecast shows above-average rainfall is likely for some parts of the state’s far north, this may only result in small amounts of rain.

Above-average temperatures are likely across most of the state both in the day and overnight, except for some northern inland areas where daytime temperatures may be closer to average.